Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is at the forefront of modern technological advancement, offering a wealth of opportunities while simultaneously posing significant challenges. These challenges have ignited intense debates among experts, policymakers, and the public. With projections suggesting that AI will be a cornerstone technology for all governments and businesses within the next two decades, the urgency to address the core questions surrounding AI has never been greater: Should we wholeheartedly welcome AI, or should we proceed with caution? Is the advent of AI going to result in widespread job loss, or will it pave the way for new types of employment? When, if ever, will AI surpass human intelligence and capabilities? And in consideration of these issues, should there be a deliberate effort to pause or regulate the pace of AI development to prioritize safety and ethical considerations?

Each of these pivotal questions is surrounded by a complex web of arguments and counterarguments, highlighting the varied perspectives and vested interests that will shape the trajectory of AI's integration into our future. Despite the debates, one aspect appears inevitable: AI development will continue, regardless of the differing opinions on whether this aligns with humanity's best interests.

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1. Should society welcome or fear Artificial Intelligence?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to be an unprecedentedly transformative technology in human history. Its vast potential harbors both significant risks and immense benefits, spanning from scenarios as dire as the destruction of civilization and the extinction of mankind, to as hopeful as the realization of a utopian paradise. This broad spectrum of possible outcomes has sparked intense debate among scholars, technologists, policymakers, and the public about the probability of these risks and benefits materializing, and whether the potential rewards of AI advancement justify the potential costs involved.

AI Pessimists (Doomers)

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Artificial Intelligence is arguably the greatest threat we’ve faced to the destruction of civilization and the extinction of mankind, surpassing nuclear weapons, climate change, and pandemics. 1 While commonly depicted in science fiction, experts agree AI turning “evil” is not a realistic scenario. Computers are not evil, nor good. AI will seek to achieve its goals, but without cruel intent… nor empathy or kindness.

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In addition to human extinction, AI poses a range of significant risks with potentially destructive effects.

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Many leading voices in AI, technology, and science have sounded the alarm regarding AI’s risks.

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A number of factors compound the risks posed by AI.

AI Optimists (Boomers)

Human progress has been driven by our intelligence. AI offers the potential to dramatically enhance this intelligence, promising improvements across all aspects of life. By harnessing AI, we can find innovative solutions to critical issues such as disease, hunger, poverty, and war, potentially transforming our world by addressing some of its most profound challenges.

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AI is already making a significant positive impact on society.

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Advanced AI has the potential to revolutionize nearly every important area of our lives, dramatically improving the quality and longevity of our lives.

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While AI presents risks, those risks are frequently overblown and can be solved.

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AI may be necessary to save our species.

2. Will AI lead to significant unemployment?

With every major technological advancement, from the Industrial Revolution to the advent of the internet, there has been a palpable fear of significant job loss. Although technology has indeed led to the disappearance of certain roles, history shows us that these losses have been offset by the creation of new jobs, many of which were unimaginable before the emergence of these technologies. However, the rise of artificial intelligence presents a unique challenge, prompting us to question whether this time is different. What will be the fate of jobs when AI matches or even surpasses human intelligence and capabilities?

It is widely acknowledged that AI will displace some jobs, but the extent of this displacement, the number of new jobs that will emerge, the quality of these new roles, and whether those who are displaced will possess the necessary skills for these new opportunities remain uncertain. The potential for AI to transform the job market is unprecedented, raising significant questions about the future of work and the adaptability of the workforce in the face of such rapid technological change.

Substantial Unemployment

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AI will unquestionably replace humans in a significant number of jobs.

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The jobs AI is expected to create are mostly high-skill, requiring substantial education and training. This will force many displaced workers into lower paying jobs and widen income inequality.

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As AI continues to evolve, an increasing number of job categories, including those newly created by AI itself, are likely to be at risk.

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Even if new jobs are eventually created, the transition period may be painful.

Will Not Increase Unemployment and Will Enhance Job Quality

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Estimates of AI job displacement are both overblown in terms of quantity and immediacy.

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AI will lead to significant job creation, surpassing those jobs lost.

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Overall job quality will improve as AI takes over the tedious tasks we don’t want to do, giving us time to focus on more meaningful, interesting, and productive work.

3. When will AI surpass human intelligence and capabilities?

A pivotal moment in the advancement of artificial intelligence will be the realization of artificial general intelligence (AGI), a system capable of performing any intellectual task that a human can. Following AGI, the next evolutionary leap would be artificial super intelligence (ASI), which would surpass human capabilities in all respects. This threshold, often referred to as the singularity, has the potential to be a defining event in human history. Some experts posit that ASI will possess self-improvement capabilities, leading to rapid and unprecedented growth in intelligence. Yet, there is considerable debate among scholars regarding the timeline for achieving AGI and ASI and whether they are plausible at all.

Far Off or Not Possible

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We are still decades or more away from AGI, with ASI even further out of reach and possibly unattainable.

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While LLMs like ChatGPT are impressive, they are much closer to an advanced auto-complete than AGI.

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A variety of factors cast doubt on the plausibility of ASI or at a minimum, significantly delay it’s creation.

Near Future

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There is no basis in the laws of physics for why a computer can not surpass human intelligence or achieve consciousness.

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AI development is advancing rapidly.

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Many leading experts are confident that AGI and potentially ASI will arrive soon.

4. Should we pause or suspend development of AI?

In March 2023, a letter advocating for a 6-month pause on advanced AI development was published, signed by prominent figures like Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Andrew Yang, and Yuval Harari. This call for a moratorium sparked debate, with some supporting even longer delays or a full suspension of progress in the field. However, these proposals have met pushback from many vocal voices in the AI community claiming that a pause is not only impractical, but likely harmful.

Pause or Suspend AI Development

“We are locked in out-of-control race to develop ever more powerful digital minds that no one, not even their creators can understand, predict, or reliably control” - Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter

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A pause in AI development will allow us to:

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Even if existential risk is small or somewhat far off, it’s important to start taking seriously today.

Continue Rapid Development of AI

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Gaining international agreement on a pause (let alone enforcing it) is a near impossibility. Thus, a pause in AI development within the US and it’s allies would simply allow other countries such as China and Russia to catch up.

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Pausing AI development will limit our ability to work on risk control measures.